Winter Weather Advisory for Most of North Central Ohio, from 1 AM to 1 PM Thursday.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
 
Target Area: Ashland, Crawford, Hancock, Huron, Lorain, Mahoning, Marion, Medina, Morrow, Portage, Richland, Seneca, Stark, Summit, Trumbull, Wayne, Wyandot
 
Light rain will continue to move into the area this evening and overnight. As temperatures fall back towards freezing shortly after midnight, the rain will change to a mix if freezing rain and sleet along with a chance of snow. Total wet snow and sleet accumulations of up to an inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected.
 
WHERE Portions of north central, northeast and northwest Ohio.  WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on the possibility of slippery road conditions, especially on bridges and overpasses, including during the morning commute on Thursday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.


SPC Feb 22, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible today, mainly across
north-cental Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. ...North-central Texas toward southern Oklahoma and Ark-La-Tex...
Elevated thunderstorms have increased early this morning, initially
across the central Texas Big Country and Hill Country. This
development should expand during the day toward southern/eastern
Oklahoma and the Ark-La-Tex in tandem with a northeastward-spreading
belt of ascent. These storms will remain rooted atop a shallow layer
of cold air, with a reservoir of steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate elevated buoyancy potentially supporting a few
hail-producing cores. In terms of source-region instability, the 12Z
observed sounding from Del Rio, Texas sampled nearly 1200 J/kg
MUCAPE (based just above 850 mb) with a 700-500 mb lapse rate of 6.0
C/km. Isolated/brief bouts of hail to near-severe levels cannot be ruled
out today as storms spread northeastward. However, modest
cloud-bearing shear will likely lead to storm clustering/updraft
interference over time, while modest mid-level lapse rates will tend
to preclude even larger hail magnitudes (greater than 1 inch). ...East Texas to Louisiana/Mississippi...
The slow-moving or stalled northeast/southwest-oriented front across
the region will likely begin to gradually return northwestward later
today, with the possibility of weak surface wave development near
the Sabine River vicinity of far east Texas and western Louisiana.
Large-scale heights will otherwise tend to slightly rise today and
near-boundary layer convergence should remain weak, with a possible
exception being where aforementioned weak surface wave development
occurs. Forcing for ascent will remain maximized on the cold side of the
front and the potential for appreciable surface-based development
near and just south of the front remains uncertain/low, particularly
given a general tendency of weakening convergence. While modest
destabilization and restrengthening southwesterly winds in the
lowest 2-3 km AGL (particularly across east Texas into Louisiana)
are potentially suggestive of non-zero severe concerns later this
afternoon through early evening, overall severe potential currently
appears too low/speculative at this time. This notion is
substantiated by most convection-allowing models given their general
lack of developing severe-caliber storm attributes across the
region. ..Guyer/Goss.. 02/22/2018 

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SPC MD 86

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
MD 0086 Image

 Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Texas and into
parts of southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221211Z - 221445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An increase in convection -- including potential for
marginally severe hail as well as local ice accumulation due to
freezing rain -- is ongoing across portions of central and northern
Texas. WW is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in elevated showers
and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of Texas -- particularly
over the Hill Country and surrounding areas. The storms are
occurring as large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains
in association with a short-wave trough moving northeastward across
eastern New Mexico, and within a zone of ample (at least 1000 J/kg)
CAPE, elevated atop a layer of near -- or below -- freezing
temperatures. Given the aforementioned characteristics of the thermodynamic
profile, areas of ice accumulation will be possible with briefly
heavy downpours. Additionally, the degree of CAPE combined with
background cloud-layer shear around 50 kt suggests that a few
organized/possibly rotating storms will be possible, with local risk
for marginally severe hail with the strongest cells. With time, expect this area of showers and storms to spread
northeastward across north Texas and into Oklahoma, where the lack
of better CAPE should mitigate any hail risk but where freezing rain
-- and thus some ice accumulation -- will still be a concern. ..Goss/Guyer.. 02/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 34259638 32739734 31469777 31219902 30490029 31500073 32420106 33620078 34560000 35039909 35249784 34909688 34259638 

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SPC Feb 22, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 251200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION...
Early day 4 (Sunday) at least a marginal severe threat may be
ongoing along remnant squall line from the southern Appalachians
into the Southeast States and possibly continuing into the Middle
Atlantic. However, tendency will be for the stronger forcing and
low-level jet to shift away from the more unstable portion of the
warm sector, limiting overall severe threat. The cold front will move into the northern Gulf by day 5 (Monday)
leaving stable conditions inland. While elevated convection may
occur as this boundary retreats north as a warm front later day 6
(Tuesday night), overall severe weather threat should remain low. 

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SPC Feb 22, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
STATES... ...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday from a portion of
northeast Texas through the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. ...Northeast TX into the lower Mississippi Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the
central Plains and middle to upper MS Valley region Saturday and
Saturday night while taking on a negative tilt. In response to
forcing accompanying this feature, a surface low initially over the
southern Plains will deepen as it develops northeast through the
middle MS Valley, eventually reaching the Great Lakes toward the end
of the period. Warm front extending east from the surface low will
move northward, reaching the OH Valley Saturday night. A cold front
initially across west TX will advance through the Southern Plains
and middle to lower MS Valley during the day reaching the OH and TN
Valleys Saturday night. A strengthening low-level jet resulting from
the deepening cyclone will transport richer gulf moisture northward
with low 60s F dewpoints as far as the OH Valley and mid to upper
60s from east TX to the lower MS Valley. However, instability will
probably remain marginal due to widespread clouds and modest lapse
rates with MLCAPE likely to remain below 1000 J/kg over most of the
warm sector. A forced line of potentially strong to severe storms should evolve
in vicinity of cold front initially over north central or northeast
TX into southeast OK during the day. Activity will subsequently move
into the lower MS, TN and OH Valley regions as the low-level jet
strengthens to 60+ kt and shifts northeast through moistening warm
sector. Vertical shear and overall character of wind profiles will
be more than adequate for organized severe storms, with potential
for LEWP, bowing segments and a few embedded supercells capable of
damaging wind and a few tornadoes. An upgrade to higher
probabilities might be needed in later outlooks once uncertainties
regarding the thermodynamic environment have been mitigated. ..Dial.. 02/22/2018 

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SPC Feb 22, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from a portion of the
Southern Plains to the lower and middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley
regions Friday. ...Discussion... Upper pattern will remain characterized by a synoptic trough over
the western U.S. and a downstream low-amplitude ridge in the east.
Weak vorticity maxima embedded within the broad southwesterly flow
regime will interact with baroclinic zone that should initially
extend from south TX into the OH Valley. Most thunderstorms should
remain confined to zone of isentropic ascent and weak instability on
cool side of this front. Deep convection will struggle to develop in
warm sector due to weak forcing and a very marginal thermodynamic
environment with warming temperatures aloft. However a few lightning
strikes cannot be ruled out with showers that might initiate in
confluence zone from southern LA into southern MS. ..Dial.. 02/22/2018 

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SPC Feb 22, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible today through tonight,
mainly across parts of the southern Plains. However, the risk for
severe storms still appears negligible. ...Discussion...
It appears that positively tilted, large-scale mid/upper troughing
will be maintained across the West today, as another significant
short wave trough digs southeast of the Pacific Northwest, toward
the southern Great Basin. A preceding short wave is already in the
process of accelerating northeast of the lower Colorado Valley. Models indicate that it will continue across the Four Corners region
early today, and through the mid Missouri Valley into the Upper
Midwest by late tonight. Forcing for ascent associated with the lead feature is expected to
remain well to the west and north of a sharp surface frontal zone
now stalled across the Cumberland Plateau through the lower
Mississippi Valley and Texas Gulf coast region. Models are
suggestive that some erosion of the shallow leading (southeastern)
edge of the cold surface-based air mass is possible from portions of
southeast Texas into the lower Ohio Valley, beneath anticyclonic
mid-level flow on the northwestern periphery of persistent strong
subtropical ridging centered off the south Atlantic coast. However,
generally weak mid-level lapse rates and forcing for ascent are
expected to limit potential for appreciable boundary layer
destabilization and vigorous thunderstorm development. Highest thunderstorm probabilities seem likely to remain focused
above the residual cold surface-based air to the north of the
frontal zone, from portions of the southern Plains northeastward
toward the Ozark Plateau. One wave of thunderstorm activity may
form in association with forcing accompanying the aforementioned
impulse emerging from the Southwest, spreading across and northeast
of the Red River Valley this afternoon. Another wave of
thunderstorm activity appears possible late tonight, near and
southeast of the Texas Hill Country into northeast Texas. This
latter convection is expected to be supported by low-level warm
advection downstream of the primary short wave digging into the
Great Basin, and perhaps forcing associated with an impulse within
the subtropical stream. This may occur in the presence of at least
somewhat more substantive steepening of mid-level lapse rates than
with the earlier convection. However, it remains unclear whether
mid-level destabilization will be sufficient to support an
appreciable severe hail risk. Given the late night (end of period)
timing, less than 5 percent severe probabilities will be maintained
for now. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 02/22/2018 

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