Partly Cloudy and 64 F at Dayton / Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH
2024-04-27
Winds are South at 16.1 MPH (14 KT). The pressure is 1018.0 mb and the humidity is 65%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 11:55 pm EDT.
Winds are South at 16.1 MPH (14 KT). The pressure is 1018.0 mb and the humidity is 65%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 11:55 pm EDT.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 11:55 pm EDT.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-04-27
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Apr 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
2024-04-27
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible, large hail and wind damage remain possible this evening across parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Severe storms with large hail, wind damage and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible from the Ozarks southward into the Ark-La-Tex. Hail will be possible late tonight in parts of west and northwest Texas. ...Lower To Mid Missouri Valley... A negatively tilted upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is currently moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Just ahead of the trough, a cluster of severe storms is located near the nose of a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture and instability. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the low to mid 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP around 1500 J/kg. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot low to mid-level jet is located across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This feature is creating strong deep-layer and very strong low-level shear. This shear is being sampled by the Des Moines WSR-88D VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, a looping hodograph, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 650 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be favorable for supercells and tornadoes over the next few hours as the cluster moves east-northeastward across central and southern Iowa. Isolated large hail and wind damage will also be possible with the stronger storms within this cluster. The severe threat should become more isolated late this evening as the cluster moves into weaker instability across northern and eastern Iowa. Further to the south, a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing in western Missouri. This cluster is located along the eastern edge of a pocket of moderate instability, where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The cluster is also located just to the west of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The Springfield, Missouri WSR-88D VWP is sampling the low-level jet, and has a looping hodograph with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 700 m2/s2. This will continue to support an isolated tornado threat with supercells for a couple more hours this evening. A threat for large hail and isolated wind damage will also exist with these storms. As these storm clusters move eastward into the Mississippi River Valley late this evening into the overnight period, the severe threat is expected to become marginal. Hail and isolated wind damage will the primary threats. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex... The latest water-vapor imagery shows what appears to be a subtle shortwave trough moving through the Ark-La-Tex. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from northeast Texas into western Arkansas. A large cluster of strong to severe storms is ongoing along the eastern edge of the low-level jet, where surface dewpoints range from 65 to 70 F, and the RAP has MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg. In addition, the Shreveport, LA WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km near 40 knots, with a gradually veering winds with height. This should be enough to continue a severe threat for a few more hours this evening. The stronger rotating cells and bowing line segments will have a potential for large hail and wind damage. ...West/Northwest Texas... An upper-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest tonight. Ahead of the system, strong moisture advection will take place across the southern Plains. A dryline in west-central Texas will retreat westward this evening, allowing for moderate instability to develop across parts of west Texas. As a low-level jet strengthens across west Texas late tonight, elevated strong thunderstorms are expected to develop from the eastern edge of the Caprock northeastward into the northwest Texas. These storms will have a chance for isolated large hail. ..Broyles.. 04/27/2024
Fair and 43 F at Dayton / Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH
2024-04-26
Winds are East at 3.5 MPH (3 KT). The pressure is 1023.2 mb and the humidity is 67%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
Winds are East at 3.5 MPH (3 KT). The pressure is 1023.2 mb and the humidity is 67%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
SPC MD 536
2024-04-26
SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 0536 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 143… FOR ARKLATEX INTO SOUTHEASTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Areas affected...Arklatex into Southeastern/Central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 143... Valid 270114Z - 270315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 143 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues in WW143. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues from Arklatex into central Missouri as with a history of reports of damaging wind up to 50-65 mph. Intensity has come down within much of this line after loss of daytime heating. Surface objective analysis would suggest that MLCIN is increasing, though it is noted in surface observations that temperatures remain in the mid 70s northeast of Little Rock. Lightning activity within this portion of line also remains very productive. This portions of the line will maintain a damaging wind threat in the short term. On the tail end of the line, surface objective analysis indicates that minimal surface-based buoyancy may be available. Storms across this region in northeastern Texas from Mount Pleasant, TX to Texarkana have maintained intensity but should generally weaken as heights rise and the airmass continues to become less favorable. Potential for damaging wind and hail will continue in the short term in this region. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 04/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33199324 32809449 32599497 32629541 32759551 32999564 32999564 33469457 33869349 34359274 34689249 35179228 35479209 35579199 35509182 35399151 35239147 34949150 34779155 34609165 34489171 34369181 34329182 34309191 33979214 33689240 33509260 33399292 33199324
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0536.htmlSPC Mesoscale Discussions
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-04-26
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z A strong mid-level trough will shift into the Upper Midwest on Sunday/Monday. Beyond Monday a more zonal pattern should lead to relatively benign fire weather conditions for much of the day 4-8 period. The only exception will be mid-week when some potential for lee cyclogenesis in Colorado may increase fire-weather potential. ...Day 3/Sunday - Southern High Plains... Some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the southern High Plains again on Sunday. These conditions should be mostly confined to southeast New Mexico and vicinity where stronger mid-level flow should be present and at least some weak lee cyclogenesis is possible with a passing weak mid-level shortwave trough. ...Day 6/Wednesday - eastern New Mexico... Some forecast guidance shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Rockies by mid-week with a lee cyclone developing. If this occurs, some dry and breezy conditions will be likely across portions of eastern New Mexico. However, there is still considerable model uncertainty with respect to the evolution of the pattern, and winds are relatively weak with forecast solutions which do have a stronger lee cyclone. For those reasons, no probabilities have been added at this time. The pattern will continue to be monitored. ..Bentley.. 04/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...