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Overnight and Tomorrows forecast 6/ 25-26
2024-06-25
Tonight – 50% Scattered T-storms, Low 68°F. Wind NW to SW 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow 6/26 – 80% Scattered T-storms, High 76°F. Wind SW 5-10 mph.
Tomorrow night – 60% Scattered T-storms. Low 58°F. Wind N 5-10 mph.
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-06-25
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions will generally remain low through the extended period, though at least low-end fire concerns are anticipated later this week and over the upcoming weekend. The upper ridge over the south-central CONUS is forecast to gradually de-amplify through the end of the work week, allowing for more amplified upper waves to propagate across the northern CONUS. This will introduce precipitation chances to much of the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin where fuels have been relatively dry. However, strong low-level winds associated with successive upper waves may support dry/windy conditions across the northern Great Basin wherever rainfall accumulations are minimal. ...D3/Thursday - Northeast NV to eastern ID.... An upper-level trough is noted in afternoon GOES imagery approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. The primary trough axis (and associated mid-level jet max) will likely be traversing northern ID/western MT around peak heating on D3/Thu. Diurnal mixing should facilitate downward mixing of the stronger flow to the surface, resulting in areas of elevated, to perhaps critical, fire weather conditions. Ensemble guidance continues to show the best potential for fire concerns across northeast NV into the Snake River Plain of eastern ID, though elevated to critical conditions may emerge across southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT (though fuel status is not as receptive as compared to locations further north/northwest). One limiting factor to the fire potential is any rainfall that can accumulate in the preceding 24 hours. This concern, along with a steady, but fairly modest, signal for critical conditions precludes higher risk probabilities. ...D5/Saturday into D6/Sunday - Great Basin... Deterministic and ensemble solutions suggest an initially low-amplitude perturbation will deepen as it migrates across the Pacific Northwest over the upcoming weekend. A deepening surface low across the Great Basin on D5/Saturday will likely induce breezy southerly winds across southern to central NV and western UT. Dry air advecting northward from the Mojave desert region should support areas of dry/windy conditions. Stronger winds are anticipated on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry/windy conditions should overspread much of eastern NV/western UT into southwest WY. Although spread is noted among deterministic solutions, ensemble guidance suggests D6/Sun will see the highest potential for critical fire weather conditions, warranting 40% risk probabilities. While fuels are currently drying across this region, rain chances in the coming days may mitigate the overall fire threat. ..Moore.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Jun 25, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
2024-06-25
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible across parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest into this evening. ...20z Update... The ongoing outlook remains on track. Only minor adjustments were made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk in South Dakota to account for current trends where convection is developing. Other changes were made to the 10 percent general thunderstorm line based on latest observations and trends. For more details, refer to previous outlook discussion below. For short term severe potential across portions of SD reference MCD 1410. ..Leitman.. 06/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ ...OH Valley... A large but weakening MCS is spreading southeastward across parts of OH/IN/IL, with a broken line of strong cells along the leading line. The western flank of this activity over IL may intensify by mid afternoon, spreading into parts of eastern MO and southern IL/IN, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. ...IA/MO/NE... Farther west, a hot, humid air mass is present today across much of MO, southern IA, and eastern NE. Widely scattered intense thunderstorms are expected to form later this afternoon - mainly along a boundary from southern IA into eastern NE. These storms would be in a sufficiently sheared environment for supercell structures capable of very large hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to sag southward through the evening. Models differ on evolution of storms overnight, with some solutions suggesting a larger MCS building into southern MO by the end of the period. ...SD/NE... An axis of southeasterly low-level winds and dewpoints in the mid 60s to 70s extends from the Black Hills region into southeast SD and central NE. Strong heating in this area will result in ample CAPE, leading to scattered afternoon and evening storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderately strong west-northwest flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Small Craft Advisory issued June 25 at 4:01PM EDT until June 25 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH
2024-06-25
LEZ144 The Islands to Vermilion OH* WHAT…Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to
Willowick OH.
* WHEN…Until 10 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a85c2448c2760bf70a7bb477b0c38a2c3fe672be.002.1.cap4:07 pmJune 25, 2024
Small Craft Advisory issued June 25 at 4:01PM EDT until June 25 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH
2024-06-25
LEZ143 Reno Beach to The Islands OH* WHAT…Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to
Willowick OH.
* WHEN…Until 10 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a85c2448c2760bf70a7bb477b0c38a2c3fe672be.002.1.cap4:07 pmJune 25, 2024
Small Craft Advisory issued June 25 at 4:01PM EDT until June 25 at 10:00PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH
2024-06-25
LEZ142 Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH* WHAT…Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to
Willowick OH.
* WHEN…Until 10 PM EDT this evening.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a85c2448c2760bf70a7bb477b0c38a2c3fe672be.002.1.cap4:06 pmJune 25, 2024
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
2024-06-25
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Central High Plains... An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of southeast WY into the NE Panhandle and far northern CO. As of 16 UTC, surface observations are already reported 15-20% RH with winds increasing to around 15 mph within a downslope flow regime. Winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon in the wake of a dry frontal passage with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph possible. Although parts of this region have received rainfall over the past 24 hours, a 1000 acre fire was reported yesterday (Monday) northwest of Torrington, WY, indicating that fuels are receptive where rain did not fall. ...western Great Basin... Shallow convective showers with occasional lightning flashes have been noted this morning over central CA as a plume of 0.9+ inch PWATs migrates into western NV. MRMS data show that precipitation rates are approaching 0.1 in/hour, with an increase in rain rates likely as convection deepens through the afternoon within the relatively moist air mass. These trends support the previous forecast of mostly wet thunderstorms, though a few dry lightning strikes outside of the precipitation cores are possible. Given the associated cloud cover, confidence in elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into OR remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... An approaching mid to upper-level Pacific trough will begin to promote breezy southwesterly surface winds across portions of far northern CA and south-central OR later this afternoon. A small Elevated area was considered across this region, where RH is expected to drop into the low teens. However, given the isolated nature of the expected elevated conditions, and overlap with less receptive fuels, it was not included at this time. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon over the Great Basin, within a mid-level plume of moisture lifting northward out of southern CA. Initial thunderstorm development in and around the Wassuk Range of NV, and White Mountains of NV/CA, may contain dry lightning. A small area of Isolated Dry Thunderstorms was considered here. However, increasing PWATS and scattered, wet thunderstorms will soon follow. In addition, the dry lightning strikes should remain west of the more volatile fuels found further east/northeast of these ranges. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...