Overnight and Tomorrows forecast 6/ 15-16
Tonight – Partly cloudy. Low 56°F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow 6/16 – Partly cloudy. High 89°F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night – Partly cloudy. Low 71°F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight – Partly cloudy. Low 56°F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow 6/16 – Partly cloudy. High 89°F. Winds SSE at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night – Partly cloudy. Low 71°F. Winds S at 5 to 10 mph.
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this evening and overnight from parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, with hail the primary risk. ...Northern/Central Plains to the upper Great Lakes... Northern Rockies short-wave trough will eject northeast across SK/MB into western ON by 17/00z. This feature is expected to partially influence the upper Great Lakes region, with only weak height falls glancing northern portions of MN. Otherwise, the primary concern for the upper Great Lakes will be the early-day short-wave trough that will eject across WI/MI. This feature is currently located over western IA but convection has weakened considerably despite the large-scale support. Current thinking is non-severe convection should spread northeast across WI into the U.P. of MI early within a warm advection corridor. Weak short-wave ridging will be noted across much of the upper MS Valley in the wake of the early-day feature. The boundary that surges across MN, arcing back into the central Plains will provide a focus for low-level convergence; however, boundary-layer heating may be inadequate for appreciable surface-based convection until late in the day. Latest models are not aggressive in developing convection along the boundary, but rather generate elevated convection north of the wind shift later in the evening as the LLJ refocuses over the central Plains after sunset. A strong signal for robust elevated convection exists across portions of SD/NE during the latter half of the period, and this activity should spread northeast during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings exhibit substantial MUCAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg), if lifting parcels above 850mb within the strengthening warm-advection zone. Hail should be the primary concern with the elevated convection. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 06/16/2024
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest. Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the East. At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE, as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue. ...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley... Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of the day. By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will be possible. During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area. In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon over parts of the upper Mississippi Valley southwestward toward the middle Missouri Valley, or roughly from eastern Nebraska into Minnesota. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, an upper trough will move eastward across the northern Plains, then northeastward from the upper MS Valley into Ontario as it impinges upon the upper ridge. Low pressure will move from ND across northern MN and into western Ontario through 00Z, with a cold front trailing southwestward across eastern NE and into central/southwest KS. Southerly flow around the eastern ridge maintain a moist air mass with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints common over a very large region south of the cold front. ...Upper MS Valley into middle MO Valley... Early day storms are forecast to quickly exit the ND/northern MN region as the warm front pushes north into Canada. Thereafter, modest heating along with the moist air mass, combined with minimal cooling aloft, will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE ahead of the front, where midlevel winds will be roughly parallel to the boundary. This may support a few linear structures moving quickly northeastward with the mean flow, and producing locally damaging gusts and marginal hail. Farther south along the front and into the central Plains, isolated strong storms are expected as low-level lapse rates will be steep from NM into southwest KS. Forecast soundings in this area show marginal shear but probably enough veering with height to support slow-moving cells capable of locally large hail or gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 06/16/2024
Union County OHZ045 Ohio* WHAT…Prolonged period of dangerously hot conditions with heat
index values around 100 possible.
* WHERE…Portions of east central and southeast Indiana and
central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
* WHEN…From Monday afternoon through Friday evening.
* IMPACTS…Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat and high humidity events, particularly for those
working or participating in outdoor activities.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c04fe73b9b462ef314a927c4e4fc8071b2804151.001.13:35 amJune 16, 2024
Licking County OHZ056* WHAT…Prolonged period of dangerously hot conditions with heat
index values around 100 possible.
* WHERE…Portions of east central and southeast Indiana and
central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
* WHEN…From Monday afternoon through Friday evening.
* IMPACTS…Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat and high humidity events, particularly for those
working or participating in outdoor activities.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c04fe73b9b462ef314a927c4e4fc8071b2804151.001.13:35 amJune 16, 2024
Delaware County OHZ046 Ohio* WHAT…Prolonged period of dangerously hot conditions with heat
index values around 100 possible.
* WHERE…Portions of east central and southeast Indiana and
central, south central, southwest, and west central Ohio.
* WHEN…From Monday afternoon through Friday evening.
* IMPACTS…Heat related illnesses increase significantly during
extreme heat and high humidity events, particularly for those
working or participating in outdoor activities.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c04fe73b9b462ef314a927c4e4fc8071b2804151.001.13:35 amJune 16, 2024