SPC Convective Outlooks
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified, yet still quite progressive pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A leading synoptic trough was initially positioned from a low near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestward across New England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic region, and the southern Appalachians, to parts of AR and eastern OK. The southern Appalachian part of the trough is expected to consolidate into a closed cyclone as it moves eastward across the Carolinas and VA, with a well-defined 500-mb low expected over the Outer Banks vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. However, associated surface frontal-wave cyclogenesis and related elevated thunder potential in the wrapping conveyor both should remain offshore. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from central FL across the north-central Gulf to near CRP and across south-central TX -- will support isolated thunderstorm potential today over parts of south FL and deep south TX before moving south of both areas. Meanwhile, a synoptic-scale trough -- with several embedded small shortwaves/vorticity lobes -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the AK Panhandle south-southeastward, just offshore of and parallel to the CONUS Pacific Coast. As these features move ashore today, preceded by several other vorticity lobes, height falls and colder air aloft will spread inland, steepening midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low/middle-level moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and a broad area of the Intermountain West/ Great Basin, with low-level warm advection and diabatic heating also aiding instability in the interior swath. Isolated thunderstorms should result. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/16/2024
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified, yet still quite progressive pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A leading synoptic trough was initially positioned from a low near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestward across New England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic region, and the southern Appalachians, to parts of AR and eastern OK. The southern Appalachian part of the trough is expected to consolidate into a closed cyclone as it moves eastward across the Carolinas and VA, with a well-defined 500-mb low expected over the Outer Banks vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. However, associated surface frontal-wave cyclogenesis and related elevated thunder potential in the wrapping conveyor both should remain offshore. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from central FL across the north-central Gulf to near CRP and across south-central TX -- will support isolated thunderstorm potential today over parts of south FL and deep south TX before moving south of both areas. Meanwhile, a synoptic-scale trough -- with several embedded small shortwaves/vorticity lobes -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the AK Panhandle south-southeastward, just offshore of and parallel to the CONUS Pacific Coast. As these features move ashore today, preceded by several other vorticity lobes, height falls and colder air aloft will spread inland, steepening midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low/middle-level moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and a broad area of the Intermountain West/ Great Basin, with low-level warm advection and diabatic heating also aiding instability in the interior swath. Isolated thunderstorms should result. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/16/2024
8:17 AMOctober 16, 2024