SPC MD 528
2024-04-26
SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...portions of northern and central Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261804Z - 261930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated convection north of the advancing warm front may
pose a risk for isolated hail through the early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...As of 1800 UTC, regional radar analysis showed
developing thunderstorms north of a warm front across pats of
northern and central IA. Strong low-level warm advection is
occurring ahead of the front as an upper trough begins to lift
northeastward out of the central Plains. As broad scale ascent and
warm advection continue, elevated buoyancy will likely support
scattered thunderstorms. Steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and
around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support occasional strong elevated
updrafts. Wind profiles are expected to continue to strengthen
during the day supporting a mixed supercell/cluster mode. Large hail
will be possible with the more robust cores above the cooler surface
temperatures. A greater severe risk may develop later this afternoon
as the surface layer gradually destabilizes. Given the elevated
nature of the convection limiting coverage of stronger storms a WW
is unlikely.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 41649426 41919535 42169565 42479576 42839600 43219611
43399605 43479553 43459452 43279410 43059383 42749365
42449351 42099338 41739342 41499354 41429386 41649426
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0528.htmlSPC Mesoscale Discussions
Fair and 43 F at Dayton / Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH
2024-04-26
Winds are East at 3.5 MPH (3 KT). The pressure is 1023.2 mb and the humidity is 67%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
Winds are East at 3.5 MPH (3 KT). The pressure is 1023.2 mb and the humidity is 67%.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
Last Updated on Apr 26 2024, 5:55 am EDT.
SPC MD 527
2024-04-26
SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 0527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...parts of east-central Oklahoma into far northern
Texas and western Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261753Z - 262000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms capable of tornadoes and
very large hail may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern
Oklahoma southward into the Red River Valley and toward far western
Arkansas.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis and visible satellite clearly show the
dryline progressing across central OK and into western North Texas,
with gradually increasing CU fields to the east. Cool outflow
remains over much of northeast OK into northwest AR, but dewpoints
continue to rise just south and west of the existing outflow
boundary.
The 18Z OUN sounding shows an uncapped air mass and strong
instability just ahead of the dryline. Even greater surface theta-e
values exist south and east of the area, contributing to over 3000
MUCAPE. Shear is also strong across the area, with around 60 kt
effective deep layer shear, and 0-1 SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 for
most of the region.
As heating continues ahead of the dryline, and clouds erode, a
narrow zone of supercell potential will develop and at least
isolated cells are expected later this afternoon.
The environment will favor tornadic supercells, with potential for
strong tornadoes, along with very large hail. The aggregated threat
area may be relatively small in time and space, however, any
supercells that endure may produce significant severe weather.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35209394 34799383 34269480 33879590 33419723 33369764
33659761 34869718 35479698 36269679 36939663 37089663
37249636 37129582 36919547 36449532 35879514 35539488
35369464 35209394
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0527.htmlSPC Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 526
2024-04-26
SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 0526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA …NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN IOWA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...parts of central and eastern Nebraska ...northeast
Kansas into southwestern Iowa.
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 261721Z - 261815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storm development appears likely on the dryline
within central and eastern Nebraska early this afternoon. Supercells
with large to very large hail and tornadoes are possible. A Tornado
Watch is likely needed.
DISCUSSION...Rapid destabilization is ongoing within the dry slot
ahead of an upper trough moving into the central Plains. Visible
imagery shows towering cumulus deepening along the bent back dryline
from near Kearney, NE to the KS border. A pocket of low to mid 60s F
surface dewpoints has remained sheltered from deeper vertical mixing
due to lingering clouds near the surface low. As cloud breaks
enlarge with the advection of dry mid-level air, insolation will
support the removal of remaining MLCINH through the early afternoon.
Area model sounding show 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with strongly
veering wind profiles and 40-45 kt of effective shear. As
large-scale ascent moves over early this afternoon, scattered
supercell development is expected along the dryline.
Hi-res guidance and observational trends are in good agreement that
an arc of storms could develop as early as 18-19z and spread
northeastward into east eastern NE and eventually western IA. With
backed low-level flow near the low/warm front and strongly veering
wind profiles overlapping with large low-level buoyancy, supercells
appear likely to pose a risk for tornadoes (possibly significant) in
addition to large to very large hail. The southern and eastern
extent of the threat remains somewhat uncertain as cloud debris and
outflow from the morning convection are still in place. Still,
gradual destabilization is likely this afternoon as ascent and
clearing arrive from the west. A tornado watch will likely be needed
early this afternoon.
..Lyons/Hart.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42649674 42299596 41909541 41399524 40729519 40129527
39949546 39889575 39859598 39829630 39859679 39889720
39979749 40089770 40329792 40639812 40869834 40979860
41019894 41179902 41629913 42149910 42239906 42579833
42739771 42749712 42649674
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0526.htmlSPC Mesoscale Discussions
SPC MD 525
2024-04-26
SPC Mesoscale Discussions
MD 0525 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...central northeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261433Z - 261700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form throughout the day,
and some are likely to become severe with tornado and large hail
potential. A watch may be needed by midday.
DISCUSSION...The morning FWD sounding shows a deep moist layer early
this morning, with 50 kt winds below 850 mb resulting in strong
low-level shear. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast
conditions over much of central TX, with scattered to broken over
much of northern TX, leading to areas of heating.
The very moist air mass is already aiding early development of
storms between Austin and Stephenville, and indications are that
this activity will gradually increase during the day beneath a
persistent low-level jet. This will lead to a long duration of
moist, unstable and sheared environment, with a few supercells
likely within the developing cluster of warm sector storms, leading
to a developing tornado risk as the activity spreads toward
northeast TX.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31109646 31039777 31339853 31749866 32329848 32719829
33129802 33729636 33949543 33859483 33749425 33609404
33349396 32859407 32099463 31799507 31109646
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0525.htmlSPC Mesoscale Discussions
SPC Apr 26, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
2024-04-26
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024