Overnight and Tomorrows forecast 5- 9/10
Tonight – 40% Showers and T-storms. Low 47°F. Wind N, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow 5/10 – 20% Showers before 10am, High 59°F. Wind N, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night – Overcast, Low 43°F. Wind N, 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight – 40% Showers and T-storms. Low 47°F. Wind N, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow 5/10 – 20% Showers before 10am, High 59°F. Wind N, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night – Overcast, Low 43°F. Wind N, 5 to 10 mph.
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO PARTS OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT SLGT LABEL LOCATION ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening -- including parts of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, an extraordinarily long, more than continent- spanning, positively tilted trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery. The trough extended from an Atlantic cyclone south- southeast of Greenland, across Newfoundland/southern Labrador and southern parts of QC/ON, the Upper Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley, NE, the central Rockies, southern Great Basin, central CA, and west-southwestward over the Pacific. On the western segment of the trough, a remnant cyclone near FSD/YKN will dissipate shortly, while a closed vortex develops over UT and slowly retrogrades through the period. Meanwhile, weak shortwave troughs now over parts of MO/IA/IL will move eastward across the Ohio Valley region, in advance of a larger, amplifying shortwave trough now over Lake Superior and northeastern MN. A weak, but still potentially influential southern stream shortwave will move east-northeastward from southwest to central TX today. Picking up some convective vorticity and related amplification, this perturbation should accelerate eastward and reach parts of AL by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a diffuse frontal-wave low over central IL, with quasistationary to locally warm front eastward across central/southern OH to northern WV. A cold front extended from the low across southern IL to eastern AR, becoming wavy/ quasistationary through a weak low south of ABI, then cold again into the Big Bend region. This front, overall, will sag southward across TX through the period, but hang up for much of the day ahead of the low and around the DFW/SEP region, and across the Edwards Plateau. The Ohio Valley low is expected to move eastward to near the southwestern corner of PA by 00Z, then move/redevelop eastward across VA to near the Delmarva Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. ...North, central and east TX... At least a few supercells are expected to erupt in a high- instability environment this afternoon, along and southeast of the front. This activity will be capable of large hail -- some of it potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. The threat area includes the DFW Metroplex -- unfortunately, no stranger to swaths of destructive hail -- and areas southward/eastward into the Hill Country, I-35/45 corridors and Piney Woods. The airmass across the region begins the day quite moist, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s just southeast of the front, and mid/upper 70s over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Steep midlevel lapse rates, related to an EML, were sampled by 12Z RAOBs at MAF and FWD. This airmass aloft will remain over the region, with some subtle/reinforcing large-scale ascent possible ahead of the southern-stream perturbation. Meanwhile, the boundary layer should destabilize amidst strong diurnal heating, causing the cap to weaken considerably through early/mid afternoon. Development is possible as soon as late morning to midday near the front, over the Edwards Plateau, and midday to mid afternoon farther north near the low. By then, 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE should be common, locally near 5000 J/kg. Low-level flow should remain weak, but with enough easterly component southeast of the front to foster strong veering with height and long (sometimes nearly straight) hodographs. This will support splitting storms, with both left- and right-moving supercells offering the threat for significant (2+ inch) hail. Sustained storms could produce 3-4-inch hailstones, based on historic analogs and a 2D hail model applied to forecast soundings. With a deep troposphere and abundant inflow-layer moisture, deeply precip-loaded downdrafts are possible, with some midlevel momentum augmentation and related severe-gust potential. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. The supercell tornado threat is conditional, mainly dependent on local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Lower Mississippi Valley to southern Atlantic Coast... Ongoing, organized areas of thunderstorms over the Southeast, interacting with and focused astride baroclinic/instability gradients from outflow boundaries, will continue to offer damaging wind, a few tornadoes, and isolated severe hail through at least midday as they move across parts of northern MS, AL, territory eastward/southeastward toward the GA/SC coast, and perhaps northern FL. For near-term concerns, refer to tornado watches 215-216 and related mesoscale discussions. The related outflow/baroclinic gradient should serve as a focus for forward propagation, and perhaps initiation, of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and strong diurnal heating south and west of the outflow boundaries will contribute to peak afternoon MLCAPE of 3500-4500 J/kg, only slowly diminishing through the evening and overnight hours. Given the very richly moist and favorable unstable environment in place, beneath parallel-oriented midlevel flow, one or two organized MCSs may result. A conditional derecho potential exists, depending on timing and location of upscale organization within this corridor. If a complex moves out of east TX, or develops far enough west in MS/LA and is sustained all the way across the remainder of the Gulf Coast States tonight, either readily could qualify. One factor that may limit overall wind potential is the gradual nocturnal stabilizing of the boundary layer. However, sufficient cold-pool organization, rear-inflow-jet development and forced ascent of the still-favorably moist air may produce enough of a vertical circulation throughout an MCS to overcome the nocturnal influence. At this time, too many mesoscale uncertainties remain to insert an unconditional 45%/MDT wind corridor, but that may need to be done in a succeeding outlook if convective guidance comes into better agreement and/or mesoscale trends warrant. A few tornadoes also may occur, especially near the outflow boundaries where low-level vorticity/shear will be maximized. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Ohio Valley region, with damaging to isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Activity should occur in an environment characterized by steepening midlevel lapse rates ahead of the ejecting MO/IA/IL perturbations, modest convergence near and ahead of the surface low, adequate near-surface moisture with dewpoints in the 50s to mid 60s, and modest diurnal heating. MLCAPE up to the 1000-1500 J/kg range is possible. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon near the max temperature hours, and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated and marginal at best. As such, severe probabilities over much of the region have been reduced. ..Edwards.. 05/09/2024
LEZ144 The Islands to Vermilion OH* WHAT…Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from the Islands OH
to Ripley NY.
* WHEN…Until 10 AM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.960c7ae41754aea52f65da5da510742cedc4600e.002.1.cap9:52 amMay 9, 2024
LEZ143 Reno Beach to The Islands OH* WHAT…Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves building to 3 to
5 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to
The Islands OH.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.960c7ae41754aea52f65da5da510742cedc4600e.001.1.cap9:52 amMay 9, 2024
LEZ142 Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH* WHAT…Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots and waves building to 3 to
5 feet.
* WHERE…The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Maumee Bay to
The Islands OH.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS…Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.960c7ae41754aea52f65da5da510742cedc4600e.001.1.cap9:52 amMay 9, 2024
Tonight – 40% Showers and T-storms. Low 54°F. Wind NE, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow 5/9 – 70% Showers and T-storms, High 57°F. Wind ENE, 5 to 15 mph.
Tomorrow night – 70% Showers and T-storms, Low 46°F. Wind N, 5 to 15 mph.