Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 131200Z

The large-scale pattern will change very little through D4/Saturday,
with a mid to upper-trough over the eastern/northeastern CONUS, and
relatively weak ridging extending through the Rockies and Pacific
Northwest. By late this weekend into early next week, however, a
north Pacific trough will move onshore, while a southern stream mid
to upper-level cyclone progresses northeastward into the Southwest.

Dry and hot conditions will persist across the Southwest in a deeply
mixed air mass through most of the extended period, where receptive
fuels will continue to become even more prone to fire starts and
spread. However, only modest mid-level flow is anticipated
throughout forecast, which should generally mitigate overall
meteorological fire spread conditions due to a lack of higher
momentum transfer from aloft. The exception may be on D8/Wednesday,
as there is decent agreement within the extended ensembles of
increasing mid-level flow accompanying a closed low moving onshore
near southern CA.

For D3/Friday, a couple of subtle shortwave troughs are expected to
round the ridge over NM and southeast CO. Some isolated dry
lightning may accompany these features across portions of northern
NM, but current fuels and limited coverage do not warrant Critical
probabilities at this time. A deepening lee surface low, and the
resulting pressure gradient, will result in breezy, dry southerly
surface winds across the High Plains of NM and the TX panhandle. An
Elevated area may need to be introduced in future forecasts for
these regions D3/Friday.

By D4/Saturday localized elevated conditions, due to increasing
surface winds, may develop across southwestern NM/Gila Mountains,
and portions of central and eastern AZ. Early this week, wetting
rains may help slow curing/worsening fuel conditions across the
central and southern FL.

..Barnes.. 06/05/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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