SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion.

..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

...Synopsis...
An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough
amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft
prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such,
relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with
significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over
most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of
the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface
winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the
afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. 

A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable
for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions
may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona
into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated
fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface
winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front,
though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized
given marginally receptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

This entry was posted in SPC Current Fire Weather Outlooks on by

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the
latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms
may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area.
However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to
a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes
introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous
outlook remains on track.

..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second
mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow
(Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the
eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially
appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such,
wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS.
Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly
surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern
Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where
Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or
breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida
Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC May 10, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

This entry was posted in SPC Convective Outlooks on by
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in
diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern
North Carolina and northeast South Carolina.

...Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move
southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying
surface cold front.  Surface heating in the wake of debris
cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer
dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front.  Thunderstorm
development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of
the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern
SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward
through this evening.  The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level
lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel
flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of
supercells and line segments.

...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening...
The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off
the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to
the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. 
There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from
the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening
later this afternoon.  Additional storm development along the
outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain,
given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to
west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only
weak/shallow ascent along the boundary.  Overall, any lingering
severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon.

...Upper MS Valley...
A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig
southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. 
Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening
low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will
support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through
late evening.  The stronger storms will be capable of producing
isolated wind damage 

...Edwards Plateau in TX today...
Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the
north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited
where storm formation is more probable.  As such, severe storms
appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico
are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international
border).

..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024

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