SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... An extended period of enhanced west to southwest flow aloft is expected across the western CONUS late this weekend through next week. As a result, a prolonged period of dry/breezy conditions is expected across the region. Continued curing of both fine and denser fuels from the Desert Southwest through the Southern High Plains, due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and warm conditions, will aid in fire spread potential. By D3/Sunday, an upper-longwave trough will encompass most of the western CONUS. Zonal flow aloft across the Rockies will induce pressure falls over the central and southern High Plains. As a result, increasing westerly surface winds will develop from AZ and NM into the High Plains of TX. These winds, combined with RH in the single digits to teens, warrant 40-percent probabilities as far east as the western TX Panhandle. However, confidence is too low in the development of any more than locally critical conditions for higher probabilities at this time. A similar, and more conducive fire weather pattern, is expected D4/Monday as a fairly stout southwest to northeast mid-level jet extends from the northern Baja Peninsula into the Four Corners. Widespread RH < 15% and slightly higher wind speeds will continue to support broader probabilities from the Desert Southwest through a portion of the High Plains of NM, TX, and CO. A 70% area was considered across southern NM where ERC percentiles will begin to exceed the 90th percentile on D4/Monday. However, confidence in more widespread critical wind speeds was not quite high enough to introduce it yet. Thereafter, the longwave trough will move across the Plains through D5/Tuesday, with the accompanying mid-level jet entrance over NM. This pattern will continue to support probabilities over NM, with less fire-weather concerns farther west. As the upper-trough continues to progress eastward on D6/Wednesday, a cold front will dive southward over the High Plains and fire-weather concerns will be confined to southern NM. An agreement of a return to west-southwest mid to upper flow over the Southwest is expected on D7/Thursday as a north Pacific upper low/trough begins to move toward the northern Rockies. Lee pressure falls should quickly return as this occurs, and breezy sustained westerlies appear likely enough to keep probabilities present across most of NM and portions of eastern AZ. The pattern begins to diverge a bit by D8/Friday, although an introduction of probabilities was considered for NM. ..Barnes/Weinman.. 05/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
