Special Weather Statement issued May 18 at 7:32PM EDT by NWS Cleveland OH

This entry was posted in Wayne county on by

Wayne County OHZ031 OhioAt 732 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wooster, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD…Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE…Radar indicated.

IMPACT…Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.

Locations impacted include…
Reedsburg.https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.25692337fe81ce51d3e26f9617d222747185c802.001.1.cap7:34 pmMay 18, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

This entry was posted in SPC Current Fire Weather Outlooks on by

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 181700Z - 191200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

Locally Elevated fire weather conditions may develop for a couple of
hours this afternoon across portions of the southern Florida
peninsula as westerly surface winds near 15 mph, very hot
temperatures (upper 90s F), and modestly lowered RH values overlap
areas with at least marginally receptive fuels. However, fire
weather conditions appear too limited in space and time for an
Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast
remains on track.

..Elliott.. 05/18/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid level ridging will start to build into the central CONUS today
with a series of troughs moving through the Northwest and northern
Plains. At this time, dry fuels are concentrated across portions of
the Southwest and southern High Plains. However, winds will be
mostly light across this region on Saturday. Some dry and breezy (15
to 20 mph) conditions are possible across southern Arizona as
mid-level flow strengthens, but fuels are not dry enough to support
large fires at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

This entry was posted in SPC Current Fire Weather Outlooks on by

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

Meteorologically Critical fire weather conditions are expected
tomorrow (Sunday) across portions of New Mexico and Texas, as
breezy/gusty surface winds overlap a hot (80s to upper 90s F) and
dry (minimum RH values less than 15%) air mass. However, rainfall
over the past 48 hours (AHPS suggests 0.25-1+ inches) leads to
uncertainties on fuel receptiveness and precludes introducing a
Critical fire weather area at this time. The rainfall was more
spotty further west across portions of northern Arizona, though
fuels remain marginally dry across this area, which should keep any
fire weather concerns Elevated even amidst near Critical
meteorological fire weather conditions. There is also the potential
for lightning holdovers from the recent thunderstorms to become
active as extremely dry air and breezy/gusty winds overlap
increasingly receptive fuels.

..Elliott.. 05/18/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024/

...Synopsis...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will begin to strengthen today across
the Southwest as troughing amplifies across the western CONUS. Dry
and windy conditions are expected across the Southwest as a result
of the deeply mixed airmass transporting some of this stronger flow
to the surface, and a lee cyclone tightening the surface pressure
gradient. Sustained winds may be has high as 20 to 25 mph with
single-digit relative humidity. This will support Critical fire
weather conditions in local areas with drier fuels, but amid only
marginally dry fuels, have elected to keep an Elevated delineation
for now. If stronger winds or drier fuels are apparent, an upgrade
to Critical may be needed in later outlooks.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC May 18, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

This entry was posted in SPC Convective Outlooks on by
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential today appears to be from
the Florida Panhandle eastward to the southern Atlantic Coast, and
portions of the western Great Lakes region.

...North FL/South GA...
A persistent band of widespread showers and thunderstorms extends
from the FL Panhandle into southern GA.  This band will sag
southward through the day, with occasional intensification along the
leading edge as daytime heating destabilizes the upstream
environment.  Locally gusty/damaging winds appear to be the main
threat.

...FL East Coast...
Strong heating is occurring along the FL peninsula, where hot/humid
conditions will be present this afternoon.  Westerly low-level flow
will focus a rather strong sea-breeze circulation, with most CAM
solutions suggesting scattered thunderstorm development.  It is
uncertain whether the activity will be along the immediate
coastline, or offshore.  However, sufficient vertical shear and CAPE
profiles indicate a risk of supercells capable of large hail and
perhaps a tornado/waterspout or two.


...Western Great Lakes into Central Plains...
A surface cold front will extend from western WI into parts of
IA/MO/KS by mid-afternoon.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form along the front from the MN Arrowhead southward into western
WI, with more isolated convection from there southward into the
Plains states.  Forecast soundings in MI/WI/Upper MI show favorable
vertical shear profiles for a few supercell structures capable of
hail and damaging wind gusts.  Therefore have added a SLGT risk area
for that scenario.  From IA south, relatively weak winds in the
lowest 6km and a deep sub-cloud layer suggest outflow dominant
storms with a more marginal severe threat.

...CO/Western KS...
Model guidance and water vapor imagery show a plume of mid-level
moisture spreading into central CO.  This should result in a cluster
of thunderstorms over the mountains by mid-afternoon, spreading
eastward into the Plains this evening.  Inverted-v sounding profiles
and favorable westerly flow aloft will promote gusty/damaging wind
potential in some of this activity.

...MS/AL into the Carolinas...
A relatively moist and unstable air mass is in place today across
the TN Valley into the Carolinas.  Little cap and pockets of daytime
heating will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout
the region - with some potential for locally gusty/damaging wind
gusts.  Areas of slightly greater focus for concern of strong storms
are 1) Ahead of the MCV currently over northern MS, and 2)  an axis
from northern AL into central NC along the northern edge of slightly
stronger winds aloft.

..Hart/Jewell.. 05/18/2024

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